Avi Parrack was a researcher at Forethought, where he worked on AI, space expansion, and governance. Tom Davidson is a senior research fellow at Forethought and the author of a series of reports on AI timelines, takeoff speeds, and AI-enabled coups.
They discuss:
Why SpaceX could give the US around 99% of global launch capacity once Starship is flying
How the space-based interceptors planned for Golden Dome would work
Whether the US could use this lead to “pull up the ladder” and lock rivals out of space
How rivals might fight back: jamming, hacking, ground-based lasers, and strikes on launch sites
Whether space dominance could break nuclear deterrence, and why Avi expects the US to build the capability but hold back from using it
Whether a lead in space could make up for China pulling ahead on Earth during an industrial explosion
First-mover advantages in the race to industrialise the solar system: scarce orbital slots, more chances to iterate, space robotics, and mass that never has to be launched from Earth
Why all of this could shape a US–China grand bargain, even if no space race ever happens
Here’s a link to the full transcript.
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